Organic Vegetable Supply Shortage May Boost Fall Prices

Supply and Demand Challenges

You’re seeing the fallout of a tough summer: FOB prices plunged to levels not seen in years and organic celery dropped to single-digit prices, according to Creekside Organics. As growers report early-season stress from May through August and gaps on items like broccoli and cabbage, your purchasing decisions will have to account for tighter volumes and selectively higher bids as buyers compete for limited supply.

Seasonal Shifts and Price Expectations

You should prepare for the October–November transition to tighten markets: Yerington’s high-desert season may end in early October and the mid-October to mid-November window often produces shortages. With Canadian Thanksgiving on Oct. 13 driving renewed West Coast demand and romaine likely tight until late November, you can expect market pricing to push above contract levels on several items.

As production districts shift from summer to winter acreage, you’ll encounter a roughly monthlong gap before desert deals ramp up; growers report organic lettuces and romaine have moderate volumes for the next 2–3 weeks and then constrained supply, while broccoli pricing is already moving higher and cauliflower remains promotable. Heat waves in coastal California and early season wrap-ups accelerate those transitions, so monitor crop reports and be ready to adjust order windows and price cushions accordingly.

Perspectives from Brenda Haught

You’ll note that May, June, July and August were all very difficult, with organic celery selling in single digits — the lowest you’ve seen in 20 years — but the outlook is shifting as districts transition; you’re starting to see gaps on items like broccoli (tight) and cabbage (out), and Canadian Thanksgiving (Oct. 13) typically redirects demand to West Coast suppliers, which should lift your fall pricing.

Insights from Gabe Romero

You should expect the Yerington, NV season to end in early October due to high desert heat, with a mid‑October to mid‑November transition that often produces shortages; romaine hearts will likely be tight until late November, demand and pricing are running well above contract levels, while cauliflower remains in good, promotable supply.

Given the roughly one‑month transition window, you’ll see moderate broccoli supplies through September with pricing pushing higher and romaine volumes limited for the next 2–3 weeks; plan your buys accordingly since the October–November gap historically tightens availability before winter desert deals ramp up.

Commentary from Michael Boskovich

You’ve seen some suppliers practically giving away celery this summer, Boskovich says, though celery has perked up lately; most of his organic program won’t start until early November and his current sales sheet lists only green onions, beets and celery, so you should prepare for tighter offerings from his operation in the interim.

He expects occasional gaps as growers switch to winter acreage and notes a California heat wave that’s keeping coastal regions warmer than usual; you’ll likely encounter more volatile supplies and stronger markets over the next month, so adjust your sourcing and pricing strategies accordingly.

Forecast for Organic Lettuce and Broccoli

You should prepare for tighter organic lettuces—romaine and other heads are likely to be short until late November, with demand strong and prices running well above contract levels and only moderate volumes expected over the next 2–3 weeks. Organic broccoli will have moderate supplies through September but market pricing is already pushing higher; the October–November transition window could tighten availability further, so you may need to adjust orders and promotional plans accordingly.

Expectations for Organic Cauliflower

You can expect organic cauliflower to remain in relatively good supply and be a promotable item over the next several weeks, offering some margin relief as other crops tighten during the fall transition; use this window to feature cauliflower in your ads and merchandising while other commodities firm up.

Given the October–November transition and rising demand from Canada after its Oct. 13 Thanksgiving, you should monitor cauliflower inventory and promotional cadence closely: growers report good supply now, but the mid‑October to mid‑November window can shift quickly as summer deals wind down and West Coast sourcing ramps up, so leverage current availability while staying ready to adjust if seasonal conditions accelerate.

Final Words

With these considerations, you should prepare for tighter organic vegetable supplies during the October–November transition, which can lift fall pricing and create short-term gaps. Adjust sourcing strategies, review contracts and promotions, and communicate with suppliers now so your inventories and pricing can better withstand rising market pressure.